Two key aspects are driving USDCAD in different directions. The evolution of both economic data as well as political events will decide which one is stronger. We could see increased volatility in the currency pair in the months ahead. Tomorrow’s release of important economic data could impact future expectations.
These are the fundamental issues that will guide the loonie in the next months.
- Policy: The gap between the Fed and the BOC is widening. This is mainly because the Canadian central bank keeps rates stable while the Fed expects to continue hiking. This is likely to be more important in the long-term, as investors adjust their expectations regarding rates and the economic outlook.
- Oil: Recent voluntary curtailments by OPEC+ saw crude oil prices rise significantly. However, Canada’s main buyer is the US, and expectations for demand for fuel south of the border will depend a lot on how the economy is seen developing in the coming months.
The US’s ability to slip into recession is dependent on many factors…