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Copper Speculator bets fall to 2-year low as China lockdowns dent demand :: InvestMacro

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By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

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Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 3rd 2022 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting the COT metals data is the recent decline in the Copper futures bets. The speculative net position in the Copper futures has fallen for two consecutive weeks and by a total of -19,408 contracts over that time-frame. This weakness has dropped the current standing for Copper net positions into a bearish position for a second straight week. Last week was the first time Copper has been in a bearish position since June 2nd of 2020, a span of ninety-nine weeks. This week’s further decline in speculator bets brings the current net standing (-15,623 contracts) to the lowest level in two years, dating back to May 5th of 2020.

Weighing heavily on the Copper sentiment is the shut downs in China due to Covid-19 outbreaks, particularly in Shanghai and Beijing. China is among the largest producers of Copper in the world and is the largest consumer of Copper in the world with the red metal being used in numerous manufacturing processes, industries and electronics being produced in the country. Any prolonged slowdown in China economic activity will have an outsized effect on the current demand for Copper.

The Copper price has pulled back recently with declines in each of the last four weeks that has taken approximately 10 percent off the futures price. Copper has been on a torrid bullish run that started in March 2020 when the pandemic burst open globally. Since the lows in March of 2020, Copper’s price rose by over 100 percent and now currently trades around the $4.25 per pound futures level.



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The only metals market we cover with higher speculator bets this week was Platinum (+816 contracts) while the markets with lower spec bets were Silver (-7,338 contracts), Gold (-18,856 contracts), Copper (-11,838 contracts) and Palladium (-245 contracts).


COT_Commodities

Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength


May-03-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 1,751,564 2 321,701 6 -366,213 94 44,512 78
Gold 560,441 31 199,168 42 -231,852 55 32,684 57
Silver 137,692 5 28,068 50 -39,317 60 11,249 8
Copper 185,255 16 -15,623 31 10,080 66 5,543 57
Palladium 7,638 6 -2,752 6 2,455 90 297 61
Platinum 66,545 33 -1,541 1 -3,667 100 5,208 35
Natural Gas 1,138,319 12 -117,706 43 72,861 54 44,845 92
Brent 168,128 14 -27,318 65 26,014 37 1,304 27
Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88
Soybeans 700,856 22 190,402 77 -165,353 27 -25,049 29
Corn 1,513,880 23 501,865 94 -451,210 8 -50,655 14
Coffee 206,337 1 40,697 77 -43,007 28 2,310 5
Sugar 818,627 1 201,592 78 -236,394 23 34,802 51
Wheat 319,233 0 20,012 60 -14,225 30 -5,787 82

 


Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 199,168 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -18,856 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 218,024 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 52.4 23.3 9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.8 64.7 3.3
– Net Position: 199,168 -231,852 32,684
– Gross Longs: 293,439 130,795 51,270
– Gross Shorts: 94,271 362,647 18,586
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.1 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.1 55.4 57.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.3 17.9 -2.5

 


Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 28,068 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,338 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,406 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.2 36.4 17.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 20.8 65.0 9.2
– Net Position: 28,068 -39,317 11,249
– Gross Longs: 56,764 50,184 23,860
– Gross Shorts: 28,696 89,501 12,611
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.3 60.3 8.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -19.8 24.8 -31.2

 


Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -15,623 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -11,838 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,785 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.4 46.7 9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 43.8 41.2 6.7
– Net Position: -15,623 10,080 5,543
– Gross Longs: 65,590 86,458 18,009
– Gross Shorts: 81,213 76,378 12,466
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.1 66.4 57.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -30.6 30.7 -13.0

 


Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,541 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 816 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,357 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 44.4 38.8 13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.7 44.3 5.6
– Net Position: -1,541 -3,667 5,208
– Gross Longs: 29,516 25,830 8,956
– Gross Shorts: 31,057 29,497 3,748
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 1.2 100.0 34.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -30.5 32.3 -28.3

 


Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,752 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -245 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,507 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.7 59.8 16.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.8 27.7 13.0
– Net Position: -2,752 2,455 297
– Gross Longs: 973 4,567 1,290
– Gross Shorts: 3,725 2,112 993
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.2 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 5.8 90.5 61.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.8 12.7 -38.9

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

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