It’s shaping up to be a tight race for Australia’s parliamentary elections, so will this short-term range hold or fold?
Check out the levels I’m watching.
Before moving on, ICYMI, yesterday’s watchlist checked out a range support test on AUD/CHF after Australia’s jobs release. Be sure to check out if it’s still a valid play!
And now for the headlines that rocked the markets in the last trading sessions:
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
Philly Fed index slumped from 17.6 to 2.6 vs. 14.9 forecast in May
U.S. existing home sales slowed to 5.61M vs. 5.65M forecast in April
U.K. GfK consumer confidence index fell from -38 to -40
Fed official Kashkari: FOMC might wind up needing to hike further
New Zealand credit card spending up 1.1% in April vs. previous 3.5% increase
PBOC cut 5-year loan prime rates to lower home borrowing costs
Japanese national core CPI up from 0.8% to 2.1% vs. 2.0% consensus
German producer prices jumped 2.8% vs. projected 1.2% gain
U.K. retail sales rebounded by 1.4% vs. estimated 0.3% dip, previous 1.2% slide
BOE MPC member Pill’s testimony at 7:30 am GMT
Eurozone consumer confidence index at 2:00 pm GMT
Australian parliamentary elections coming up
Use our new Currency Heat Map to quickly see a visual overview of the forex market’s price action! 🔥 🗺️
What to Watch: AUD/NZD
It’s an exciting time for the Land Down Under, as Australians are headed for the polls this weekend.
The race is expected to be a tight one, although either result might bring some relief for the currency. The conservative coalition headed by PM Morrison is seeking its fourth three-year term versus the Labor party.
As for New Zealand, data has been mixed. Credit card spending slowed in April, possibly due to higher consumer prices, while the latest trade balance printed promising export activity.
AUD/NZD is inching closer to testing the bottom of its range right around the 1.0985 mark, and technical indicators are hinting at a bounce.
The 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA to suggest that the path of least resistance is to the upside while Stochastic is already reflecting overbought conditions. Turning higher would confirm that Aussie bulls are ready to charge again.
However, the pair is trading below both moving averages as an early indicator of bearish pressure. A break below the range support could set off a drop that’s the same height or roughly 75 pips.
Just make sure you adjust your stops to account for potential gaps if you’re planning to hold this trade open over the weekend!