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HYCM: Three questions for the market in 2023


In short, the bank’s analysts believe that there is a possible path to a soft landing, but that this will be dependent on the Fed being able to tweak policy “just right” in order to stay on track.

Larry Summers has softened his stance on a soft landing, despite having previously stated that a downturn was inevitable. “I’m still cautious, but with a little bit more hope than I had before. Soft landings are the triumph of hope over experience, but sometimes hope does triumph over experience.”

Bank of America’s “sell-side indicator” has been falling precipitously since 2021. In December of 2022, it fell by 33 basis points, to a level just short of “extreme bearishness” which has historically signaled a reversal point and a buying opportunity. These turning points can occur when investors tend to lean in one direction. This is similar to the extreme jubilation that characterizes the top of asset bubbles.

Goldman Sachs recently included Tesla on a 46-stock list that Goldman Sachs believes will be successful in the event of a soft landing. Tesla and other stocks are available for HYCM’s investors, who can also access Seasonax, the premier tool for discerning seasonal trends…

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