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Market Update – November 17 – “Recession is a threat”

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Market Update – November 17 –  “Recession is a threat”


As suggested by the inverted yield curve and recent earnings reports including Target today, recession is a real threat. There are also geopolitical risks from Ukraine.

  • USDIndex Steady 106.25 After ranging between 105.34 and 107.10. (Ηeavy data calendar saw stronger than expected retail sales, weaker than forecast industrial production, with a further big drop in the NAHB) YLower ields were achieved The 10-year fell 13 bps to 3.669% after a high of 38.4%. The 30-year was lower at 3837% by 12.5 bps. The curve inversion grew further to -68bps, a level not seen since 1981..
  • Fed’s Waller: “more comfortable considering stepping down to a 50 bp hike” but he added he will not be making that decision until he sees more data. Waller is one of the Most hawkish These remarks are important for the FOMC. Fed Daly reiterated that a pause on hikes was not possible for now and reiterated Chair Powell’s comment that it is not even a point of discussion currently, in a CNBC interview.
  • EUR – choppy at 20-day SMA. Bloomberg Source story confirmed that the ECB It will reduce its tightening cycle, and provide a 50-bp move in December.
  • JPY – holding below 140There is, however…



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