By Liam Collins United States Military Academy West Point
It is easy to see that the Russian troops are digging trenches to prepare themselves for a winter standoff. This would lead to the conclusion that fighting in Ukraine will slow down until the ground thaws in spring.
However, evidence from the Ukrainian battlefields points to a different trajectory.
I am a U.S. Special Forces officer and a former field researcher on the 2008 and 2014 wars between Georgia and Ukraine. This war has shown that only one side can execute effective combat maneuvers. The Ukrainians will launch a large-scale counteroffensive late in winter, when the ground is still frozen.
Winter’s impact on war
The winter is a time when fighting has been slower than usual.
Weapons and other equipment can freeze up in extreme cold, and it’s much more difficult to shoot a weapon while wearing thick gloves.
The shortening of days is a problem. Despite technological advancements, the majority of fighting in this war took place during the day.
However, the Ukrainian military may experience a different winter this year.
First, Ukrainian winters do not get nearly as cold or snowy as some believe.
Donetsk, for instance, has an average temperature…
