Market sentiment continued to brighten this past week as traders rolled back bets on the Federal Reserve’s rate hike path. The benchmark S&P 500 closed July with a gain of over 9%, its best monthly performance since late 2020. A strong performance from Apple and Amazon helped US equities on Friday, gaining 3.28% and 10.36%, respectively.
The US Dollar weakened across the board as traders moved into Treasuries, which pushed yields lower, especially along the USD-sensitive short-end of the curve. Still, high inflation and a likely recession pointed to stagflation in the economy, but that wasn’t enough to dissuade risk-taking. The personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) rose 4.8% y/y, and US GDP growth fell 0.9% in the second quarter on a quarter-over-quarter basis. Gold prices took advantage of the Greenback weakness, with traders pushing XAU to its highest level since July 6 against the USD.
Still, sentiment is likely in a fragile spot, and traders will look for follow-through to confirm the bullishness seen in July. Meanwhile, weakness in economic indicators may continue to elicit a “bad news is good news” response in markets. The US ISM manufacturing PMI gauge for July is set to cross the wires at 52 this week, down from the prior 53 read in June. Earnings reports from several more S&P 500 companies are slated to drop through the week.
The Australian Dollar may continue to rise this week but the Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision will be key to the Aussie Dollar’s direction. Many believe the RBA fell behind the curve on tackling inflation, which could result in the central bank playing a game of catchup. If so, that would likely help AUD/USD rise further. Analysts expect to see a 50-basis-point rate hike from the RBA on Tuesday.
Elsewhere, New Zealand’s second-quarter employment report is due out. The Q2 unemployment rate is seen dropping to 3.1%, according to a Bloomberg survey. NZD/USD rose over 0.5% last week. The British Pound is also set for potential movement on the Bank of England rate decision. A 25-bps hike is expected from the BoE. GBP/USD put in a strong gain of nearly 1.5% last week. Canada’s July employment report and the US non-farm payrolls report will wrap up the week, with the NFP numbers being another potentially high-impact event that could see Fed rate hike bets change.
US DOLLAR WEEKLY PERFORMANCE VS. CURRENCIES AND GOLD
Australian Dollar Outlook: US Dollar Gyrations Dominate AUD
The Australian Dollar rollicked through the week, with CPI coming in high but below expectations before the Fed and US GDP decimated the US Dollar, lifting AUD/USD.
British Pound (GBP/USD) Forecast – Will the BoE Go Hard This Thursday?
At the last BoE meeting, the central bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points, although three MPC members called for more. What size hike will the central bank decide on this Thursday?
Crypto Week Ahead: BTC, ETH Bull Run Resumes Post FOMC Meeting, BTC Hits 6-Week High
BTC and ETH are increasingly tackling higher resistance levels. BTC July gains could top 20%.
S&P 500, FTSE 100 Week Ahead: NFP, ISM and BoE Rate Decision
S&P 500 registers best month since November 2020. FTSE 100 breaks above 100 and 200DMA
USD/CAD Forecast: US, Canada Employment Reports in Focus
Fresh data prints coming out of the US and Canada may influence the near-term outlook for USD/CAD amid the ongoing shift in monetary policy.
Gold Price Outlook Turns Bullish as July FOMC Meeting Marks Peak Fed Hawkishness
Gold prices could continue to recover in the near term as weakening US economic data could prompt a Fed monetary policy pivot later this year, a scenario that could weigh on Treasury yields.
Euro Week Ahead: Non-Farm Payrolls in Focus. Will Jobs Market Offset Slowing Economy?
The Euro slightly gained as the US Dollar weakened. US GDP shrinking once again placed more focus on a pivot from the Federal Reserve. Are markets wrong? All eyes are on non-farm payrolls data.
US Dollar Technical Forecast: DXY, USD/JPY, GBP/USD Charts to Watch
The US Dollar saw broad weakness this past week. The DXY Index, GBP/USD and USD/JPY are at key levels that may break or hold in the week ahead.
S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones Forecast for the Week Ahead
It was a big week for stocks as the Fed hiked rates by another 75 basis points, helped along by earnings reports from Apple and Amazon. Is the bear trend over?
Crude Oil Price Technical Forecast: WTI Rebound Bounces into August
Crude oil surged more than 12% off the July lows with a rebound off technical support in focus heading into August. The levels that matter on the WTI weekly chart.
Gold Price & Silver Forecast – XAU, XAG May Put Rally to the Test
Gold and silver have undergone strong bounces, but strength may be put to the test as a new week unfolds; levels and lines to watch.
Dollar Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Extends Losses After Strong Bull Run
USD/JPY has continued its move lower after bulls ran out of steam in mid-July. Is this a pullback or can bears take control of the trend?