Two key data points will be released simultaneously on Thursday, making it the biggest day of the week for markets. The US reports a flash Q1 GDP expected at 2.3% Compared to 2,6% before. In addition, the Core PCE price data for Q1 will be released. This is an important data point that the Fed follows. Inflation is expected to confirm the downward trend with 4.1% as opposed to 4.4% previously.
The data isn’t expected to dissuade the Fed from its next hike, unless there is a significant miss on expectations. However, The consensus among economists predicts that the US will experience a recession in the second half of the year. This could mean that the US’s Q1 GDP is the last positive result for some time.
Before data release
A key indicator for future business prospects and the health of the US’s economy will be released just ahead of Wednesday’s GDP figures. The March Durable Goods orders are expected to increase by 0.6% Comparing to -1.0% before. If you exclude transport and defence, core durable goods are expected to grow at 0.1% as opposed to the 0.0% that was previously.
Durable goods represent a significant investment by companies with the expectation of a long-term return.
