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What to Expect from China’s National People’s Congress


Sunday marks the start of the annual, week-long National People’s Congress (NPC) in China. That’s when all the country’s leaders get together to lay out key national policies for the rest of the year and beyond. This will mark the first time that the NPC has been held since the repeal of covid restrictions. The NPC also gains additional importance this time because there will be significant changes in leadership positions within the government.

One of the most important economic items that Congress should address is setting the goal for GDP growth in 2023. Last year, China’s economy grew by 3.0%, affected by zero-covid policy disruptions. This was the second-worst economic performance since 1970 and the biggest miss of the target, even though Congress had set 5.5% for 2022.

Recovery or overdrive

In light of the global economic weakness and the low growth rate last time, it is expected that the NPC will establish a growth target for 2023 of 5.0%. However there have been some press reports that officials are getting ambitious, looking to not only return to growth, but to make up for the “lost year” of 2022. Average growth targets for provincial governments are 5.6%.

However, pushing for growth would lead to higher prices.

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