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XAU/USD: on the eve of the Jackson Hole forum – Analytics & Forecasts – 25 August 2022


Against the backdrop of a weakening dollar and growing risks of a recession in the United States and in the global economy, gold quotes again moved to growth. XAU/USD is up for the 3rd day in a row today and is trading near 1764.00 as of this writing, in close proximity to the strong resistance at 1766.00. In case of its breakdown, the important resistance level of 1775.00 becomes the target, the breakdown of which will increase the likelihood of further corrective growth towards the key resistance levels of 1800.00, 1819.00. Their breakdown will confirm the return of XAU/USD to the zone of a long-term bull market (for more details, see “XAU/USD: technical analysis and trading recommendations for 08/25/2022”).

Today, a new driver may appear in the dynamics of the dollar: at 12:30 (GMT) the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish its updated forecast for GDP for the 2nd quarter and data on prices for personal consumption expenditures PCE (Price Index for Personal Consumption Expenditure), one of the main inflation indicators, which FOMC Fed officials use as an indicator of inflation.

Also at the same time, the US Department of Labor will publish a weekly report on the state of the US labor market with data on the number of primary and secondary claims for unemployment benefits.

Thus, at 12:30 will be published key indicators characterizing the current state of the US economy, which are also key for the country’s central bank in determining the parameters of its monetary policy.

If the published data will disappoint market participants, then the decline of the dollar will intensify.

Support levels: 1757.00, 1748.00, 1700.00, 1690.00, 1682.00

Resistance levels: 1766.00, 1775.00, 1800.00, 1819.00, 1832.00, 1875.00

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